Bitcoin price has remained under pressure in the past few months, moving from a high of $126,300 in October to the current $95,785. This crash has mirrored the ongoing performance of other cryptocurrencies. So, how low can the top blue-chip get?
Bitcoin price technical analysis on the daily chart
The daily timeframe chart shows that the BTC price has crashed in the past few months. It has moved into a bear market as it crashed by over 20% from its all-time high.
Bitcoin has formed a double-top pattern at $124,350 and a neckline at $107,440. The distance between the upper part and the neckline is about 14%. Measuring the same distance from the neckline gives it a target of about $92,000, which is much lower than the current level.
Bitcoin has also formed other bearish signs. For example, it has moved below the Supertrend indicator. It is also about to form a death cross pattern as the spread between the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) narrows.
Bitcoin has moved below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level. Therefore, the daily pattern points to more downside, potentially to the psychological point at $90,000. A move below that level will point to more downside, potentially to the 61.8% retracement level at $78,830.
BTC price forecast on the weekly chart
The weekly chart points to more Bitcoin price weakness now that it has been forming the risky rising wedge pattern. This is a unique pattern formed by two rising and converging trendlines. A bearish breakout normally happens when the two lines are about to converge.
The distance between the widest part of this pattern is about 46%. Measuring the same one from the breakout point means that it may soon crash to the psychological point at $56,000.
Why Bitcoin is in a bear market
There are a few reasons why Bitcoin is in a strong bear market. First, there is a sign of fatigue among BTC holders now that it has underperformed other assets. It has jumped by less than 3% this year, while gold is up by 55%.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose by 14% and 18%, respectively. As such, there are signs that investors are dumping Bitcoin for these assets.
Second, Bitcoin has dropped as many large investors sold their coins. Recent data show that long-term holders have dumped over $45 billion worth of coins in the past few months.
Third, demand for Bitcoin ETFs has waned, with these funds shedding $1.1 billion worth of coins in the last week. They lost $1.2 billion and $798 million in the previous two weeks. As a result, the cumulative inflows of Bitcoin funds stand at about $58.8 billion, down from $65 billion earlier this year.
Additionally, the Bitcoin price has plunged because of the ongoing decline in futures open interest. Data shows that the interest has retreated to $66 billion, down from the year-to-date high of $94 billion. Falling open interest is a sign of low demand for the coin in the futures market.
There are other top reasons why Bitcoin price has crashed in the past few months, including the falling Fear and Greed Index, and the falling odds that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates.
Additionally, there is limited new money entering Bitcoin, with the stablecoin exchange inflow remaining steady at $87 billion. Also, Bitcoin treasury companies have continued struggling.
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