Nvidia stock (NASDAQ: NVDA) ticked higher Monday as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that President Trump will personally decide whether to allow the company to sell its powerful H200 AI chips to China.
Lutnick told Bloomberg the decision “sits right on Donald Trump’s desk,” with input from multiple advisors, including Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.
The Nvidia stock climbed on the news because suddenly, a market that’s been closed to Nvidia, China, has become possible again.
Wall Street is pricing in binary outcomes: approval could unlock roughly $50 billion in near-term revenue, while rejection maintains the status quo.
This isn’t a routine policy question. It’s a geopolitical showdown between Nvidia’s lobbying blitz and national security hawks who worry that advanced American chips will militarize Chinese AI capabilities.
The battle also reveals deep divisions inside the Trump administration about what “America First” actually means.
Trump’s H200 dilemma & the national security trap
Here’s the setup: Under Biden, the US blocked most Nvidia sales to China for national security reasons.
Trump approved limited H20 chip sales earlier this year, but H200s is roughly twice as powerful. They represent a major step up, the kind of chip that could meaningfully accelerate Chinese AI development.
Huang has been lobbying hard. He told investors that Nvidia expects zero China revenue under current restrictions, costing the company roughly $50 billion.
He frames it as unfair: why should Chinese competitors get to build AI infrastructure while Nvidia’s locked out?
The argument resonates with Trump’s team. Lutnick pitched H200 exports as a way to get China “addicted” to American technology, dependency without selling our “best stuff.”
But that logic enrages China hawks in Congress. A bipartisan group is pushing the GAIN AI Act, which would force chip makers to prioritize American customers before selling abroad.
The bill already passed the Senate 77-20 as part of the defense bill. However, the White House is actively lobbying Congress to kill it.
That’s remarkable: Trump’s team is working against lawmakers on both sides, trying to restrict China’s chip sales.
The tension is real. Some Trump officials believe approving H200 sales strengthens US competitiveness by boosting Nvidia’s profits.
Others worry it hands Beijing a military advantage. No timeline for Trump’s decision exists, so investors are just waiting.
Congressional gridlock & the market’s binary bet
The GAIN AI Act creates a fundamental problem for the administration’s plans.
If it becomes law, Commerce Department officials would be forced to reject H200 export licenses automatically. That would make Trump’s decision meaningless.
But the White House push to kill GAIN AI is working. Biden’s team isn’t stopping it, and Trump’s AI czar, David Sacks, has joined the lobbying effort.
Meanwhile, Chinese companies are discouraging the use of even the H20 chips that the US already permits; Beijing wants domestic alternatives.
That’s the irony: China may reject H200 sales anyway due to state-mandated procurement preferences.
Nvidia stock reflects this uncertainty perfectly. It popped on Lutnick’s comments, but it’s not soaring because the outcome remains genuinely unclear.
If Trump approves H200 sales and Congress doesn’t block it, Nvidia gets a $50 billion tailwind.
If Congress passes new restrictions or Trump tables the decision, nothing changes. Investors hate that kind of binary outcome; it means waiting for political theater instead of earnings fundamentals.
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