The S&P 500 Index has rebounded in the past few days and is hovering near its all-time high. It rose for five consecutive days, as fears of an AI bubble cooled and as odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut rose on Polymarket. Here are some of the top catalysts for the blue-chip S&P 500 Index and its top ETFs like VOO and SPY.
S&P 500 Index to react to key US earnings
One of the main catalysts to watch will be the upcoming earnings from some of the biggest companies in the United States.
These earnings come at a time when most American companies have published strong numbers in the past few months.
FactSet data shows that 95% of all companies in the S&P 500 Index have published their third-quarter financial results.
The average earnings growth of these companies was 13.4%, which was much higher than the average estimate of 8.3% before earnings.
For example, the most recent Nvidia earnings showed that the company’s revenue rose by over 55% in the third quarter to $57 billion, and the management expects that the fourth-quarter numbers will be $65 billion. This number will likely be much higher, especially if Donald Trump authorizes sales of its Blackwell chips.
Some notable American companies will publish their results this week. CrowdStrike, the cybersecurity company valued at over $118 billion, will publish its numbers on Monday. Other firms releasing their results on this day are OKTA, Box, and American Eagle.
Salesforce, the biggest company in the customer relations software industry will release its results on Tuesday. These results come as the stock remains under pressure after falling by 37% from its highest level in 2024. It has dropped as the company’s slowdown has continued, and as concerns about its AI business remained.
Other companies releasing their numbers on Tuesday are Guidewire Software, Dollar Tree, Five Below, and Thor Industries.
Additionally, top S&P 500 Index companies like Kroger, Hewlett-Packard, Ulta Beauty, DocuSign, Dollar General, and Hormel Foods will release their numbers on Thursday.
Holiday Sales growth
The S&P 500 Index will react to reporting that American consumers remained resilient last week. Data shows that Black Friday sales were much higher than what analysts were expecting
Retail sales excluding autos rose by 4.1% on Black Friday, higher than last year’s growth of 3.4%. Analysts were expecting the sales to remain under pressure because of the worsening labor market and elevated inflation. A report released last week showed that consumer confidence tumbled in November.
Trump plans for Venezuela
The other main catalyst for the S&P 500 Index will be geopolitical ones after Donald Trump closes the airspace above Venezuela.
He said this as his administration continues to threaten more aggressive moves unless Nicholas Maduro exits. His forces, including the most lethal warship have been accumulating near Venezuela.
It is unclear whether Trump will invade Venezuela or accelerate strikes in the country. One option has been to launch strikes against Venezuela’s military installations.
An attack on Venezuela will have an impact on the S&P 500 Index because of the vast oil that the country sells, which would be interrupted.
Top US macro data to impact the S&P 500 Index
Meanwhile, the US will publish some important macro numbers that will impact the S&P 500 Index moderately.
One of the top numbers to watch will be the September Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report, which will come out Friday. This PCE report will provide more information about the country’s inflation and provide hints on what to expect from the Fed.
Other key numbers to watch will be the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI reports, US manufacturing and industrial production data, and personal income and spending.
These numbers will come as investors predict what the Federal Reserve will do in the next meeting, with odds that it will cut rates rising.
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