UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH) remains in focus ahead of the health insurance company’s Q4 earnings scheduled for next week on January 27th.
But for long-term investors, its upcoming earnings – even if they beat expectations – may not mean much given the macro environment is turning against UNH under the Trump administration.
UnitedHealth stock is currently trading at a historical discount and has secured Warren Buffett as a major investor as well.
However, recent developments, including new Medicare accusations and President Trump’s “Great Healthcare Plan,” suggest UNH shares may be risky to own in 2026.
New Medicare accusations could hurt UnitedHealth stock
UNH stock is less appealing now that the company is facing fresh scrutiny after a US Senate probe alleged that the insurer uses “aggressive tactics to maximize Medicare Advantage payments.”
Recent reports claim the giant deployed advanced artificial intelligence (AI) tools and specialized staff to identify discretionary diagnoses (often minor conditions) that lifted federal reimbursements regardless of medical necessity.
US lawmakers, including Sen. Chuck Grassley, accused UnitedHealth of “gaming” the system by inflating risk scores to secure higher subsidies.
These accusations raise the risk of “tighter” government oversight, potential fines, and reputational damage. For investors, these could mean pressure on margins and deteriorating confidence in the company’s long-term growth story.
Trump’s Great Healthcare Plan is a bane for UNH shares
UnitedHealth shares are unattractive to own in 2026 also because President Donald Trump recently said his Great Healthcare Plan will “get rid of insurance brokers and corporate middlemen.”
While this could lower healthcare premiums for Americans under his tenure, this policy change – if enforced – could mean a significant hit to UNH’s margins.
Eliminating or even trimming middlemen role may hurt its profitability and weaken its competitive advantage.
In short, investors believe this regulatory change will reduce the firm’s pricing power and expose it to heightened scrutiny, which is why its share price has inched down in January.
How to play UnitedHealth ahead of earnings on Jan. 27
Investors are recommended to exercise caution in playing UNH ahead of its Q4 print, also because the elevated medical care ratio remains an overhang on its stock.
The management’s guidance withdrawals have rattled investors, and these news headwinds (Senate findings and Trump’s healthcare plan) won’t make things any better in the near-term.
That’s partly why options traders forecast a continued downside in UnitedHealth to roughly “$291” or about 12% from here over the next three months.
Even from a technical perspective, the health insurance firm is just as unattractive – having recently slipped below its key moving averages (100-day and 200-day), indicating bears will likely remain in control over the next few weeks.
These insights more than offset the charm of a 2.67% dividend yield on UnitedHealth stock.
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