Citing stronger-than-expected yields in Siberia, agricultural consultancy SovEcon has revised its 2025 Russian wheat production forecast upwards.
The agricultural consultancy increased its projection by 0.2 million metric tons (MMT) to a new total of 88.8 MMT, signaling a potentially larger harvest.
The latest agricultural projections indicate a positive revision for the barley crop, with the estimate being increased by 0.1 MMT, bringing the new forecast to 19.4 MMT.
Better yields boost outlook
This upward adjustment suggests better-than-anticipated yields or a larger planted area than previously modeled.
In contrast, the forecast for corn production remains static at 12.7 MMT, the consultancy said.
This stability in the corn estimate implies that factors influencing its yield and acreage have performed precisely as expected, with no significant weather events or market changes compelling a revision.
The contrasting fortunes of the two grain forecasts—an increase for barley and a hold for corn—will have distinct implications for global grain reserves, commodity market pricing, and supply chain logistics for the upcoming season.
The latest estimate for total grain production has been revised upward to 136.2 MMT, marking an increase of 0.8 MMT compared to the previous month’s figure, SovEcon said.
Siberia was the primary driver (+0.2 MMT) of the upward revision in the wheat forecast, due to unexpectedly high yields.
“Despite adverse weather earlier in the season, the harvested area ultimately approached average levels,” SovEcon said.
Meanwhile, due to improved yields in both the Urals and Siberia, the barley estimate was revised upward. The first official crop results from Rosstat are typically published during the final week of the year.
Initial outlook for 2026 wheat crop
SovEcon has maintained its outlook for Russia’s 2026 wheat crop at 83.8 MMT. This forecast signifies a notable reduction when compared to the agency’s estimated harvest for the preceding year, 2025.
Specifically, the projected 2026 output of 83.8 MMT represents a substantial decrease of 5 MMT from the 2025 estimate.
The decision by SovEcon to hold the forecast steady at 83.8 MMT suggests that current data, encompassing factors like winter planting conditions, weather patterns, and the overall agricultural policy environment, align with their initial assessment for the 2026 season.
The projected year-on-year decline of 5 MMT indicates expectations of less favorable growing conditions or a reduction in planted area compared to the anticipated 2025 record or near-record harvest.
SovEcon said:
So far, no material weather risks are evident, and the winter wheat area is in line with our expectations.
The estimated pre-harvest wheat area for 2026 is 26.3 million hectares, which represents a decrease from the 26.9 million hectares recorded this season, the consultancy said.
SovEcon projects that average yields will be slightly above normal, with wheat output potentially ranging from 79.8 MMT (pessimistic scenario) to 87.9 MMT (optimistic scenario).
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