Brent crude oil price will be in the spotlight on Monday after talks between the United States and Iran failed to achieve a deal, raising the possibility that the ceasefire will end. It ended last week at $94.25, down from the year-to-date high of $119.45.
Brent crude oil price may rebound as US-Iran talks fail
Polymarket traders believe that crude oil prices are headed higher in the coming days after talks between the US and Iran ended without a deal after 21 hours. A Polymarket poll with over 23% in assets shows that odds are high that the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) will jump to $105 this month.
Odds of price rising this year rose after the first round of talks between the US and Iranthe . The US was represented by JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff, while Iranians were led by the Foreign Affairs minister and the Speaker of the parliament.
In a statement, Tasnim, a semi-autonomous paper, said that while the Iranians made various initiatives towards a common framework, the Americans’ greed hindered this from happening. It added:
“The Americans intended to achieve concessions in the negotiation room that they could not obtain during the war, including issues related to the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of nuclear materials from the country.”
On the other hand, JD Vance said that Iran had chosen not to accept US terms. He also noted the country had not made a firm commitment that it would not seek a nuclear weapon and the tools that would enable it to have a weapon quickly.
President Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have hinted that the fighting may start soon. Trump said the US military was loading new weapons as it prepared for an attack if there was no deal. Netanyahu said that Israel had not achieved its goals and was prepared to restart.
These new developments mean that the ceasefire may end soon, especially now that Iran has maintained its role at the Strait of Hormuz, where it is collecting tolls and controlling which oil tankers pass the chokehold.
A return to fighting will drive crude oil prices much higher than where it ended last week. Besides, it may push the US and Israel to start their strikes against Iran.
This, in turn, may push Iran to launch attacks against oil infrastructure in the region. It may also leverage its closeness to Yemen’s Ansah Allah (Yemen) to shut the Red Sea, which accounts for 12% of oil transport.
Crude oil prices technical analysis
Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView
The three-day chart shows that Brent has dropped sharply in the past few months, moving from a high $119.6 on March 6 to the current $94.25. After falling to $87 on Hyperliquid as talks started, it jumped to $92.7 today.
Brent remains slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level at $96.40. It has remained much higher than the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), while the Relative Strength Index has moved from the extreme overbought level at 90 to 59.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds moderate on Monday as traders predict that the US-Iran ceasefire may end soon if this happens, it may jump to $100 and above
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