US futures steadied on Thursday, suggesting investors were not ready to abandon risk after another flare-up in the Gulf.
Fresh US strikes on Iran and Tehran’s response had briefly pushed oil higher and revived inflation fears, but crude cooled from its highs before the open.
That gave equities room to recover, even as traders stayed focused on energy routes, Fed policy and the next read on the labour market.
The mood is calmer than Wednesday’s selloff, but not complacent. Wall Street is still trading around the same question: whether geopolitical shocks will keep rates higher for longer.
5 things to know before Wall Street opens
1. Futures point to a steadier start
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%, while Dow futures declined 0.10%. Nasdaq 100 futures outperformed, climbing 0.61% as semiconductor stocks led premarket gains.
The move came after Wednesday’s mixed session, when the S&P 500 and Dow closed lower but the Nasdaq managed a small gain.
Investors are still willing to buy weakness in growth shares, but geopolitical headlines are keeping conviction limited.
2. Oil eases after Gulf spike
Oil prices fell about 1% on Thursday, easing from two-week highs reached after Trump said the interim Iran ceasefire was “over”.
The pullback helped calm equity markets after Brent and WTI had jumped on fears of renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
UBS Global Wealth Management strategists see the path to a lasting agreement as uneven, with occasional flare-ups likely to drive volatility. Still, they expect both sides to have an incentive to keep Hormuz open.
3. Fed minutes keep rate risk alive
The Fed kept rates unchanged at its June meeting, but minutes showed a few policymakers saw a case for raising borrowing costs.
That matters because an oil-led inflation shock could make the central bank less willing to soften its stance.
Markets are pricing at least one rate increase by year-end, according to LSEG data.
Fed officials may sound hawkish for longer until they are confident that energy shocks are not feeding broader price pressures.
4. Claims data offers the next macro check
Weekly jobless claims, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, will give investors the next look at labour-market conditions. New York Fed President John Williams is also scheduled to speak later in the day.
The data may not dominate the tape unless it surprises, but it matters in a market already balancing growth concerns against inflation risk.
5. Chip stocks lead the broader pre-market move
The firmer futures tone was helped by a rebound in semiconductor stocks after two sessions of heavy selling.
Micron rose 3.5% in premarket trading, while AMD and Intel gained more than 2.5%, as investors returned to the AI hardware trade.
The bounce followed a bruising global chip selloff, but Wall Street analysts have largely kept their bullish view intact.
Bank of America reiterated a Buy rating on Micron, UBS lifted its DRAM price forecasts, Goldman Sachs raised its AMD target, and HSBC doubled its Intel target.
That helped restore confidence that the AI memory cycle is still intact, even if valuations remain stretched.
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